CENTRAL
AMERICA 2020
PAPER
ON "THE DYNAMICS OF GROWTH AT THE SECTORAL LEVEL"
WORK
PLAN (11 MAY 1999)
(1) TENTATIVE OUTLINE OF PAPER
• Changes in the structure of
production in each country in the last 20 years (national accounts data)
-
includes disaggregated data for
the agricultural and manufacturing sectors
- trends in the various services
sectors (including maquila production and tourism)
- relationship between these trends
and economic policy reforms, other factors
- includes discussion of data
problems
•
Anticipated trends in the
regional, hemispheric, and world economies in the next 20 years, and their
potential effects on the structure of production in Central America
- globalization
- WTO reforms
- Central American and hemispheric
integration
- world economic growth, by major
region, and its effects of the pattern of demand for Central American exports
- technological progress (e.g. in
communications, transportation, energy)
- a possible political/economic
transition in Cuba (which has potentially significant negative effects on
prospects for the expansion of tourism and other services in the Central
American countries)
- demographic change
- intraregional and extraregional
migration
- greater participation by ethnic
minorities and women in the processes of economic, social, cultural, and
political development
- confronting threats to the
environment and the natural resource base
- review of 2020 visions of OECD,
IFPRI, others
- summary of potential effects of
external trends on Central American countries' agricultural, manufacturing, and
services sectors
•
Policy reforms (economy-wide and
sectoral) needed for Central American countries to strengthen their domestic
and regional economies and to participate more effectively in the global
economy
- national-level reforms
- economic growth
- equity
- environmental sustainability
- democratic participation
- regional reforms
- expanding the process of trade
liberalization in order to incorporate more fully the agricultural and services
sectors
- respective roles of the State,
the business community, and civil society, including implications for the
provision of government services
- agricultural modernization and
diversification, with greater access by small farmers to the factors of
production
- transforming maquila production
into manufacturing activity
- removing barriers to investment
in the services sectors, with particular attention to:
- maquila production
- tourism
- information technologies
- financial services
- others
• Alternative visions of the
structure of the Central American economies in 2020
- with and without major additional
policy reforms
- possibly two alternative
scenarios for the world economy
• Policy recommendations for more
effective development assistance
(2) TENTATIVE CALENDAR OF ACTIVITIES
May-June 1999 Preparation
of expanded, annotated outline of paper, with some analysis of sectoral growth
trends in El Salvador and Honduras
Early July 1999 Workshop
in Central America; data collection in Guatemala and Belize
July 1999 Data
collection in Costa Rica, Nicaragua, and Panama, as necessary, if data cannot
be obtained by other means. [NOTE: This trip might be moved to June if my
scheduled trip to Honduras in that month is postponed.]
1 September 1999 Submission
of complete draft of paper, incorporating suggestions from the Workshop
15 November 1999 Submission
of final version of the paper, incorporating comments by the lead consultants