CENTRAL AMERICA 2020

PAPER ON "THE DYNAMICS OF GROWTH AT THE SECTORAL LEVEL"

 

  WORK PLAN (11 MAY 1999)

 

(1) TENTATIVE OUTLINE OF PAPER

 

Changes in the structure of production in each country in the last 20 years (national accounts data)

 

-               includes disaggregated data for the agricultural and manufacturing sectors

 

- trends in the various services sectors (including maquila production and tourism)

 

- relationship between these trends and economic policy reforms, other factors

 

- includes discussion of data problems

 

           Anticipated trends in the regional, hemispheric, and world economies in the next 20 years, and their potential effects on the structure of production in Central America

 

- globalization

 

- WTO reforms

 

- Central American and hemispheric integration

 

- world economic growth, by major region, and its effects of the pattern of demand for Central American  exports

 

- technological progress (e.g. in communications, transportation, energy)

 

- a possible political/economic transition in Cuba (which has potentially significant negative effects on prospects for the expansion of tourism and other services in the Central American countries)

 

- demographic change

 

- intraregional and extraregional migration

 

- greater participation by ethnic minorities and women in the processes of economic, social, cultural, and political development

 

- confronting threats to the environment and the natural resource base

 

- review of 2020 visions of OECD, IFPRI, others

 

- summary of potential effects of external trends on Central American countries' agricultural, manufacturing, and services sectors

 

           Policy reforms (economy-wide and sectoral) needed for Central American countries to strengthen their domestic and regional economies and to participate more effectively in the global economy

 

- national-level reforms

 

- economic growth

- equity

- environmental sustainability

- democratic participation

 

- regional reforms

- expanding the process of trade liberalization in order to incorporate more fully the agricultural and services sectors

 

- respective roles of the State, the business community, and civil society, including implications for the provision of government services

 

-      agricultural modernization and diversification, with greater access by small farmers to the factors of production

 

- transforming maquila production into manufacturing activity

 

- removing barriers to investment in the services sectors, with particular attention to:

 

- maquila production

- tourism

- information technologies

- financial services

- others

 

Alternative visions of the structure of the Central American economies in 2020

 

- with and without major additional policy reforms

 

- possibly two alternative scenarios for the world economy

 

Policy recommendations for more effective development assistance

 

 

(2) TENTATIVE CALENDAR OF ACTIVITIES

 

May-June 1999 Preparation of expanded, annotated outline of paper, with some analysis of sectoral growth trends in El Salvador and Honduras

 

Early July 1999 Workshop in Central America; data collection in Guatemala and Belize

 

July 1999 Data collection in Costa Rica, Nicaragua, and Panama, as necessary, if data cannot be obtained by other means. [NOTE: This trip might be moved to June if my scheduled trip to Honduras in that month is postponed.]

 

1 September 1999 Submission of complete draft of paper, incorporating suggestions from the Workshop

 

15 November 1999 Submission of final version of the paper, incorporating comments by the lead consultants